Economists are boosting growth forecasts. Employment numbers are improving. Manufacturing activity is bottoming. Housing demand is strengthening. Business leaders are starting to say the worst may be over.
Markets are celebrating, hoping the good news will keep on coming. But there is a smudge on the picture. A surprisingly large number of money managers and economists are warning that, despite the hopeful signs, the economy is still deep in the woods, not strong enough to support a long-running stock and bond recovery.
To keep rising in the future, the market needs a sign of real economic recovery, and that requires a surge in consumer spending, business investment and home buying. One word explains why: debt. Despite an uptick in consumer saving, debt levels have only barely begun to come down.











